Correlation Analysis Between the Proportion of Prepaid kWh Meter Customers and the Rate of P2TL Violations at PT PLN (Persero) ULP Tebing Tinggi

Abstract

Non-technical losses due to electricity usage violations are one of the main challenges faced by PT PLN (Persero) in maintaining energy distribution efficiency. A program to migrate from postpaid to prepaid kWh meters has been implemented as a control strategy; however, the relationship between the adoption rate of prepaid meters and the number of violations detected under the Electricity Usage Enforcement (P2TL) program has not yet been empirically examined using a correlational statistical approach. This study aims to analyze the correlation between the proportion of customers with prepaid kWh meters and the rate of P2TL violations at PT PLN (Persero)’s Tebing Tinggi ULP from January 2024 to December 2025. The method used is a quantitative correlational approach with monthly data comprising 24 observation points (n = 24). The Shapiro-Wilk normality test indicated that the prepaid proportion variable was normally distributed (W = 0.9505; p = 0.2773), whereas the total P2TL violation variable was not normally distributed (W = 0.8998; p = 0.0213); therefore, the analysis proceeded using Spearman’s correlation test. The analysis results showed a correlation coefficient of ρ = −0.1715 with a p-value of 0.4230 and a calculated t-value of −0.817, which is smaller than the critical t-value of 2.074 (df = 22; α = 0.05). These results indicate that there was no significant correlation between the proportion of prepaid kWh meter customers and the number of P2TL violations identified at the Tebing Tinggi ULP during the study period. Over the course of 24 months, P2TL operations successfully identified a total non-technical loss of 2,254,471 kWh, valued at Rp 1,110,779,065. These findings indicate that P2TL violations are influenced by factors other than the proportion of prepaid meter usage, thus requiring a more comprehensive control approach.