Beyond Bankruptcy Prediction: A Longitudinal Analysis of Financial Health Signals in Indonesia’s Listed Food and Beverage Companies, 2021-2025

Abstract

This study examines the financial-health classifications and longitudinal movements of the Modified Altman Z″-Score among five selected food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2021-2025. Using a descriptive quantitative design, the study analyzes secondary data from annual financial statements and calculates the Z″-Score from four ratios: working capital to total assets, retained earnings to total assets, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets, and book value of equity to total liabilities. The findings reported in the study indicate that all five companies remained above the healthy-category threshold throughout the observation period. However, their score trajectories differed: INDF and ICBP recorded increases, MYOR and GOOD showed fluctuations, and ROTI experienced an overall decline while remaining in the healthy category. These results illustrate that a stable classification may coexist with changes in an accounting-based financial-health indicator. Viewed through signaling theory, changes in the score can serve as prompts for further examination of a company’s financial condition, rather than as definitive evidence of actual bankruptcy or future performance. The study contributes a company-level longitudinal perspective extending the observation period through 2025. Its findings should be interpreted within the limits of the selected sample and the use of a single model.