Analysis of the Influence of Port Performance, Palm Oil Exports and Infrastructure on Economic Growth of Aceh Singkil

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of port performance, palm oil exports, and logistics infrastructure on economic growth in Aceh Singkil Regency. Although the area has great potential in the oil palm plantation sector and is supported by the presence of a port, its economic growth has not reached its optimal level due to limited infrastructure and logistics efficiency. This study uses a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach with five endogenous variables, namely Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP), Port Performance Index (IKP), Palm Oil Export Value (NES), Palm Oil Export Permit Volume (VIES), and Logistics Infrastructure Index (IIL), with an observation period of 2015–2024. The results showed that most variables had the greatest contribution to their own historical value, but there was a significant interaction between them. VIES made a dominant contribution to NES of 81.31%, showing the strong relationship between licensing regulations and export realization. GDP was significantly influenced by IIL with a contribution of 18.02%, indicating the importance of logistics infrastructure in encouraging regional economic growth. In addition, IIL is also influenced by IKP, which reflects the close relationship between port feasibility and logistics efficiency. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening logistics infrastructure and optimizing port functions as a regional economic development strategy based on commodity excellence. Investment in the logistics sector and transportation systems is a crucial factor in increasing export competitiveness and supporting inclusive and sustainable economic growth.