Analysis of Exchange Rate, GDP, Inflation, and Ticket Prices on Domestic Flight Demand in Indonesia
Keywords:
PAXD, Exchange Rate, GDP, Inflation, Ticket Price, ARDL ModelAbstract
This study analyzes the influence of the exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and ticket prices on domestic flight demand in Indonesia from 2010 to 2024. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDLapproach, the research captures short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium in the context of post-pandemic recovery characterized by exchange rate volatility and inflationary pressures. Bound test results indicate strong cointegration (F-statistic = 26,92995), confirming a long-term relationship between variables. Long-term estimates show that GDP and the exchange rate have a significant positive effect on passenger numbers, while inflation and ticket prices have a significant negative impact, reflecting the high price sensitivity of the Indonesian market . The Error Correction Term (ECT = -0,936690) suggests a rapid adjustment mechanism, where approximately 93.67% of short-term imbalances are corrected within one period. The model is statistically stable, adheres to classical assumptions, and demonstrates high explanatory power (Adjusted R² = 0,9277). These findings underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic stability and adaptive pricing policies in ensuring the sustainable recovery of the domestic aviation sector in price-sensitive developing economies.
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