Analysis of Scirpophaga incertulas Population Dynamics in a Single Rice-Growing Season Influenced by Climatic Factors in Sei Bingei, North Sumatra
Keywords:
Climate, Linear Regression, Logistic Model, Population Dynamic, Scirpophaga Incertulas.Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climatic factors (temperature, humidity, and rainfall) and the population dynamics of Scirpophaga incertulas in Sei Bingei, Langkat, North Sumatra, using regression analysis and a logistic growth model. The population was monitored using an LED SMD light trap with an intensity of 500 lumens (50 W), operated daily from 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM (Western Indonesian Time) in a 600 m² (20 × 30 m) paddy field, with a container of soapy water placed below the lamp to capture moths. Correlation analysis showed that temperature had a strong positive relationship with the population (r = 0.795), while humidity (r = –0.491) and rainfall (r = –0.535) had weak negative relationships. Linear regression results indicated an R² value of 0.75, meaning that 75% of population variation could be explained by climatic factors, with a Significance F value of 0.0085, showing that climatic factors collectively had a significant effect. The regression coefficients revealed that temperature had a significant positive effect (coefficient = 4.375; p = 0.014), while humidity and rainfall were not significant (p > 0.05). Simulation of the population dynamics of S. incertulas with the logistic growth model produced a MAPE value of only 3.15%, indicating that the model has a high level of accuracy in predicting the population dynamics of S. incertulas in Sei Bingei. These findings imply that temperature changes play a dominant role in influencing S. incertulas population fluctuations in rice ecosystems.
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