Determinants of Unemployment and Poverty in North Sumatra Province: A 2007–2022 Analysis
Keywords:
Poverty, Unemployment, Population, GRDP, Education, Minimum WageAbstract
This study analyzes the determinants of poverty in North Sumatra Province from 2007 to 2022, focusing on unemployment, population growth, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), education, and minimum wages. Poverty remains a persistent development challenge in Indonesia, and North Sumatra is among the provinces with a relatively high poverty rate despite experiencing economic growth. Using secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), this study applies factor analysis followed by multiple linear regression to identify the most influential variables affecting poverty. The results indicate that four factors—population, GRDP, education level, and minimum wage—form the strongest determinants among the variables tested. Regression results show that population, GRDP, education, and minimum wages significantly affect poverty levels in North Sumatra, whereas the unemployment rate does not show a significant effect during the study period. These findings highlight the crucial role of human capital, economic performance, and labor income policies in alleviating regional poverty. The study provides policy implications for provincial governments to prioritize education expansion, stabilize economic growth, and strengthen wage regulations to improve household welfare.
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