Analysis of the Availability and Need for Public Facilities Based on Population Growth in the Next 20 Years in the Urban Area of Sei Rampah

Abstract

The continuous population growth in Sei Rampah Urban Area has generated increasing demand for public facilities, particularly worship facilities. This study aims to analyze the existing condition of worship facilities, calculate population projections for the next 20 years, and determine the required number of worship facilities based on the SNI 03-1733-2004 standard. The research applies a quantitative and descriptive approach, while population projection analysis is conducted using the geometric method. The results show that there are 92 worship facilities distributed across five villages/sub-districts within the Sei Rampah Urban Area, the majority of which are mosques and mushollas. The population in 2024 totals 42,886 people and is projected to increase to 60,799 people by 2045 using the geometric projection method. Based on the worship facility standards, a total of 1,264 units will be required in 2045, consisting of 1,256 mushollas, four Christian churches, and four Catholic churches, with a total land requirement of approximately 32.36 hectares. These findings indicate that the current availability of worship facilities is insufficient to meet future population needs. Therefore, more structured and proportional planning is required to ensure equitable distribution, accessibility, and quality of worship facilities in the Sei Rampah Urban Area.